中国可能的大变在即，我们该怎么办？
中国可能的大变在即，我们该怎么办？
https://xuwenli2018.blogspot.com/2024/11/blog-post.html
（2024年11月3日）
徐文立
种种迹象表明，中共独裁者习近平最近可能失去了某种“一尊”的特权；鉴于中共的政治体制不是苏式“铁幕”、也是严密的“竹幕”，外界很难了解中共内部；那年习近平刚刚上台，某人传达所谓“习近平要学蒋经国”，现在看来更像替独裁者习近平放“独裁烟雾弹”的笑话；那么，当前中共内部真实的发生了什么重大的变故，特别在原独裁者还没有完全失势的情况下，我们不得而知……。
我2002年12月24日圣诞夜流亡至美国。2003年2月12日在哈佛大学费正清中心发表了一个讲话《中国民主制度建立的希望在于渐进》—https://www.wenxuecity.com/blog/202006/72897/45407.html
我说：「民主的政治制度几度与我们中国社会失之交臂，必定是有原因的。
我们知道如果纽约地下的岩石不是那么坚硬，纽约就不敢既挖很深的地铁，又盖那么高的摩天大厦了。所以，中国的民主社会的建立，要经历相当的一个过程，才可能比较稳定。
当然有另外一种可能，社会的进程往往不是哪个政治人物能够设计出来的，一些突发事件都可能加速或者改变这个进程。我个人的总的思路，是认为中国的民主进程还是渐进，会更好。我很尊敬康有为、梁启超这些先生们，我有一本书的名字，就叫作《我以我血荐轩辕》，就是康、梁同时代的谭嗣同精神的体现。但是，他们领导的“百日维新”，显然操之过急。
（至于康有为先生后来，如同凭着“‘之父’诏”一般的“衣带诏”敛财享受却是另外的话题；1979年理应大力谴责毛泽东、深入批判毛泽东之时，「之父」却突发全力攻击邓小平更是另外的话题……）
我之后，又多次指出：“多元的思想，人的自由度恰恰就建立在这样的基础上，所以私有财产和个人权利，正是民主社会的两大基石之一。另一块基石就是社会的高度自治和公民社会的建设，时间的缘故，今天讲不了了。这二块基石在中国，还远远没有达到能够作为民主社会这样一个大厦的基石所需要那样坚固的程度。”
我2009 年1月17日再说：“建立自由民主的政治制度需要两块基石：1）全社会的高度自治；2）公民用契约合法拥有包括土地在内的私有财产的神圣不可侵犯”。
中国大陆政治上现在到底发生了什么？我们现在不清楚，我们的力量又十分单薄，怎么办，不妨先用几条提议试一试水。
1）强烈要求中共政府释放彭载舟等等政治犯；
2）要求中共政府改变「房屋土地的70年使用权」，改变为「房屋产权是永久期限的，土地使用权只要继续合法缴纳房地产税，也是永久期限」；墓地亦然。
3）要求中共政府首先在全国范围内，实行村、乡、县三级公开、公平、公正的公民普选；在政府机构外（公开宣布不参加任何公职选举者之外）的退伍军人组成“带薪监督小组”，案件直报地方法院裁决。
4）要求中共政府逐步放开对言论出版、组党结社的控制；尽快审议通过《政党法》和《新闻出版法》、及批准联合国的中共政府在1998年10月5日签署的《公民和政治权利国际公约》。
5）要求中共实行越南共产党式改革，直至公开宣布“放弃未经公开、公平、公正的公民普选的“执政权”。
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China’s Political Reform Must Follow a Gradual Path
---What Should We Do in the Face of Potential Major Changes in China?
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By XU Wenli （徐文立）
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【Editor’s Note: Recent indications suggest that Xi Jinping, the authoritarian leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), may have lost some of his exclusive power, though the true situation remains unclear due to the opaque nature of CCP politics. Despite initial expectations that Xi would follow Chiang Ching-kuo’s example of gradual reform, this now seems like a ruse for consolidating autocracy. In a 2003 Harvard speech, Xu Wenli emphasized the need for a progressive approach to establishing democracy in China, arguing that private property, individual rights, and a highly autonomous society are essential foundations. While unforeseen events may hasten this process, Xu advocates for gradual change to ensure stability. To address current uncertainties, he proposes measures: the release of political prisoners, property rights reform, fair elections, relaxed control over free expression, and reforms leading to the CCP relinquishing undemocratic power. These steps aim to foster a democratic transition aligned with societal progress.】
Various signs indicate that Xi Jinping, the authoritarian leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), may have recently lost some of his supreme privileges. Given that the CCP’s political system is neither an iron “curtain” like the Soviet Union’s nor an impermeable “bamboo curtain,” it is difficult for outsiders to grasp what’s happening within its ranks. Years ago, when Xi first took power, some claimed he would “emulate Chiang Ching-kuo,” but this notion now seems more like a smokescreen for his autocratic ambitions. The true nature of the significant shifts within the CCP, particularly when the dictator has not yet been fully unseated, remains elusive.
On Christmas Eve of 2002, I exited the United States. On February 12, 2003, I delivered a speech at Harvard University’s Fairbank Center titled “The Hope for Establishing Democracy in China Lies in Gradualism” (《中国民主制度建立的希望在于渐进》). In that speech, I said: “The repeated near-misses between democratic political systems and Chinese society must have underlying reasons.
We know that if the bedrock beneath New York City were not so solid, it wouldn’t dare dig deep subways while building towering skyscrapers. Thus, establishing a democratic society in China must undergo a substantial process to achieve stability.
There is another possibility—social progress often cannot be crafted by any single political figure; unforeseen events can accelerate or alter this course. I believe that a gradual path to democracy in China would be more favorable. I hold deep respect for figures like Kang Youwei and Liang Qichao. One of my books, I Recommend Myself to the Yellow Emperor with My Blood (《我以我血荐轩辕》), embodies the spirit of their contemporary, Tan Sitong. However, the “Hundred Days’ Reform” they led was clearly too hasty.
I have also pointed out on multiple occasions: “The diversity of thought and the degree of individual freedom are built upon this very foundation. Private property and individual rights are essential pillars of a democratic society. Another cornerstone is a highly autonomous society and the development of civil society, which I won’t delve into today due to time constraints. These two pillars in China are far from the solidity required to support the structure of a democratic society.”
On January 17, 2009, I reiterated: “Building a political system founded on freedom and democracy requires two main pillars: 1) a highly autonomous society; 2) the inviolable right of citizens to legally own private property, including land.”
What is currently happening in Chinese politics? We don’t know for sure, and our strength is limited. So, what should we do? Perhaps we can test the waters with a few proposals:
Strongly urge the CCP to release political prisoners such as Peng Zaizhou.
Demand that the CCP change the “70-year property rights” to “permanent property rights for houses and permanent land usage rights as long as real estate taxes continue to be paid legally,” including cemetery plots.
Call on the CCP to implement public, fair, and just elections at the village, township, and county levels nationwide, with a group of retired veterans who voluntarily forgo public office forming “paid oversight teams” to report cases directly to local courts for judgment.
Urge the CCP to gradually lift controls on freedom of speech, publishing, and the formation of political parties and associations; expedite the review and passage of the Political Parties Law and Press and Publishing Law, and ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights signed by the Chinese government on October 5, 1998.
Demand that the CCP adopt reforms akin to those of the Communist Party of Vietnam, culminating in a public declaration to “relinquish ruling power not obtained through open, fair, and just elections.”
(November 3, 2024)
Source: https://xuwenli2018.blogspot.
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